
. 
. 
. /* Table 1 p. 1277 Model 1  Ordinary Logit */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade

Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-3859.5902
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood =-3580.1908
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood =-3496.2964
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-3480.4202
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood = -3477.671
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-3477.5604
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-3477.5602

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  20990
                                                        chi2(6)       = 764.06
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -3477.5602                             Pseudo R2     = 0.0990

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0496637   .0073778     -6.732   0.000      -.0641239   -.0352036
  growth |  -.0223398   .0085251     -2.620   0.009      -.0390487    -.005631
  allies |  -.8208541   .0800192    -10.258   0.000      -.9776887   -.6640194
  contig |   1.312954   .0796017     16.494   0.000       1.156937     1.46897
capratio |  -.0030723   .0004172     -7.365   0.000      -.0038899   -.0022547
   trade |  -66.12997   13.43924     -4.921   0.000      -92.47039   -39.78955
   _cons |  -3.288793   .0791769    -41.537   0.000      -3.443977    -3.13361
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 14 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. /* Table 1 p. 1277 Model 2 Logit Dummy */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade k*

Note: k24~=0 predicts failure perfectly
      k24 dropped and 368 obs not used

Note: k26~=0 predicts failure perfectly
      k26 dropped and 273 obs not used

Note: k27~=0 predicts failure perfectly
      k27 dropped and 275 obs not used

Note: k33 dropped due to collinearity.
Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-3816.3285
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood = -2986.408
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood =-2621.8203
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-2569.4912
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood =-2556.7256
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-2554.7848
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-2554.7234
Iteration 7:  Log Likelihood =-2554.7233

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  20074
                                                        chi2(37)      =2523.21
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -2554.7233                             Pseudo R2     = 0.3306

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0546991   .0079985     -6.839   0.000      -.0703759   -.0390224
  growth |  -.0114601   .0092409     -1.240   0.215      -.0295719    .0066518
  allies |  -.4708377   .0899559     -5.234   0.000      -.6471481   -.2945273
  contig |   .6986943   .0893415      7.820   0.000       .5235881    .8738004
capratio |  -.0030348   .0004167     -7.282   0.000      -.0038516    -.002218
   trade |  -12.67462   10.49912     -1.207   0.227      -33.25252    7.903282
      k0 |   3.305926   .7163814      4.615   0.000       1.901845    4.710008
      k1 |   1.270401   .7263753      1.749   0.080      -.1532685     2.69407
      k2 |   1.160462   .7290526      1.592   0.111      -.2684548    2.589379
      k3 |   .9337902   .7335105      1.273   0.203       -.503864    2.371444
      k4 |   .6847077   .7402518      0.925   0.355      -.7661592    2.135575
      k5 |    .217739    .755765      0.288   0.773      -1.263533    1.699011
      k6 |   .2266872   .7557117      0.300   0.764      -1.254481    1.707855
      k7 |   .3032036   .7534271      0.402   0.687      -1.173486    1.779894
      k8 |   .3608386   .7535085      0.479   0.632      -1.116011    1.837688
      k9 |   .0673846   .7675947      0.088   0.930      -1.437073    1.571843
     k10 |  -.1478274   .7824179     -0.189   0.850      -1.681338    1.385684
     k11 |   -.013882    .776459     -0.018   0.986      -1.535714     1.50795
     k12 |  -.6135589   .8238111     -0.745   0.456      -2.228199    1.001081
     k13 |  -1.255192    .919529     -1.365   0.172      -3.057436    .5470516
     k14 |  -1.273172   .9194745     -1.385   0.166      -3.075309     .528965
     k15 |  -.1455755   .7894366     -0.184   0.854      -1.692843    1.401692
     k16 |  -.9130323   .8729694     -1.046   0.296      -2.624021    .7979563
     k17 |  -2.281951   1.229661     -1.856   0.063      -4.692041    .1281397
     k18 |  -.3000528   .8092517     -0.371   0.711      -1.886157    1.286051
     k19 |  -.6406355   .8437847     -0.759   0.448      -2.294423    1.013152
     k20 |  -1.490415   1.005984     -1.482   0.138      -3.462107    .4812779
     k21 |  -1.001166   .9194559     -1.089   0.276      -2.803266    .8009349
     k22 |  -.8230577   .9196423     -0.895   0.371      -2.625524    .9794082
     k23 |  -.6869368   .9196564     -0.747   0.455       -2.48943    1.115557
     k25 |   .3322251   .8245261      0.403   0.687      -1.283816    1.948267
     k28 |  -.6145954   1.006903     -0.610   0.542      -2.588088    1.358898
     k29 |  -.1160025   .9205971     -0.126   0.900       -1.92034    1.688335
     k30 |  -1.108637   1.230583     -0.901   0.368      -3.520536    1.303261
     k31 |  -.2627167   1.007284     -0.261   0.794      -2.236958    1.711524
     k32 |  -.7677047   1.230905     -0.624   0.533      -3.180233    1.644824
     k34 |  -.5271106    1.23132     -0.428   0.669      -2.940454    1.886233
   _cons |  -4.248785   .7146516     -5.945   0.000      -5.649477   -2.848094
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 16 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. /* Table 1 p. 1277 Model 3 Logit Spline */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade py*

Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-3859.5902
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood =-3005.2809
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood =-2647.2017
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-2596.1506
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood =-2584.6719
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-2582.9291
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-2582.8753
Iteration 7:  Log Likelihood =-2582.8752

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  20990
                                                        chi2(10)      =2553.43
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -2582.8752                             Pseudo R2     = 0.3308

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0545631   .0079732     -6.843   0.000      -.0701903   -.0389359
  growth |   -.011546   .0092005     -1.255   0.210      -.0295787    .0064867
  allies |  -.4703538   .0896277     -5.248   0.000      -.6460209   -.2946867
  contig |   .6938941   .0890436      7.793   0.000       .5193719    .8684163
capratio |  -.0030383   .0004167     -7.291   0.000       -.003855   -.0022216
   trade |  -12.88417   10.50514     -1.226   0.220      -33.47387    7.705528
      py |  -1.815563   .1113587    -16.304   0.000      -2.033822   -1.597304
    pys1 |  -.2445441   .0261038     -9.368   0.000      -.2957066   -.1933816
    pys2 |   .0792281   .0109453      7.239   0.000       .0577758    .1006805
    pys3 |  -.0109198    .002758     -3.959   0.000      -.0163254   -.0055142
   _cons |  -.9660298   .0925914    -10.433   0.000      -1.147506    -.784554
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 16 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. /* Table 1 p. 1277 Model 4 Cloglog Dummy */
. cloglog dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade k*
Iteration  0: Log Likelihood = -4035.883757
Iteration  1: Log Likelihood = -2980.105799
Iteration  2: Log Likelihood = -2662.443283
Iteration  3: Log Likelihood = -2578.207895
Iteration  4: Log Likelihood = -2558.312082
Iteration  5: Log Likelihood = -2554.818983
Iteration  6: Log Likelihood = -2554.308264
Iteration  7: Log Likelihood = -2554.149299
Iteration  8: Log Likelihood = -2554.090887
Iteration  9: Log Likelihood = -2554.069399
Iteration  10: Log Likelihood = -2554.061493
Iteration  11: Log Likelihood = -2554.058585
Iteration  12: Log Likelihood = -2554.057515
Iteration  13: Log Likelihood = -2554.057122
Iteration  14: Log Likelihood = -2554.056977
Iteration  15: Log Likelihood = -2554.056924
Iteration  16: Log Likelihood = -2554.282992
Iteration  17: Log Likelihood = -2554.057053
Iteration  18: Log Likelihood = -2554.056894
Iteration  19: Log Likelihood = -2560.754263
Iteration  20: Log Likelihood = -2554.176411
Iteration  21: Log Likelihood = -2554.056959
Iteration  22: Log Likelihood = -2555.418110
Iteration  23: Log Likelihood = -2554.994298
Iteration  24: Log Likelihood = -2554.058158
Iteration  25: Log Likelihood = -2554.056893
Iteration  26: Log Likelihood = -2554.056898
Iteration  27: Log Likelihood = -2554.056893
Iteration  28: Log Likelihood = -2554.056893

Complementary log-log Estimates                        Number of obs =   20990
                                                       Chi2(40)      = 2611.07
                                                       Prob>Chi2     =  0.0000
Log Likelihood = -2554.057                             Pseudo R2     =  0.3383

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0493839   .0072491     -6.812   0.000      -.0635919   -.0351759
  growth |  -.0080822   .0076135     -1.062   0.288      -.0230043      .00684
  allies |  -.4300449   .0772835     -5.565   0.000      -.5815179    -.278572
  contig |   .5544789   .0774624      7.158   0.000       .4026553    .7063025
capratio |  -.0030232   .0004044     -7.475   0.000      -.0038159   -.0022305
   trade |  -12.50318   10.10817     -1.237   0.216      -32.31482    7.308466
      k0 |   3.651929   1.002629      3.642   0.000       1.686813    5.617045
      k1 |   1.854915    1.00926      1.838   0.066      -.1231994    3.833029
      k2 |   1.741907   1.011138      1.723   0.085       -.239888    3.723701
      k3 |   1.521444   1.014287      1.500   0.134      -.4665216     3.50941
      k4 |   1.273189    1.01917      1.249   0.212      -.7243467    3.270725
      k5 |   .8153765   1.030438      0.791   0.429      -1.204246    2.834998
      k6 |   .8203621   1.030405      0.796   0.426      -1.199194    2.839918
      k7 |   .8945172   1.028779      0.869   0.385      -1.121852    2.910886
      k8 |   .9508313   1.028763      0.924   0.355      -1.065507     2.96717
      k9 |   .6612779   1.039084      0.636   0.525       -1.37529    2.697846
     k10 |   .4441577   1.050065      0.423   0.672      -1.613933    2.502248
     k11 |   .5740572   1.045664      0.549   0.583      -1.475407    2.623521
     k12 |  -.0185536   1.081281     -0.017   0.986      -2.137825    2.100718
     k13 |  -.6584412   1.155805     -0.570   0.569      -2.923778    1.606896
     k14 |  -.6773529   1.155791     -0.586   0.558      -2.942662    1.587956
     k15 |   .4426449   1.055281      0.419   0.675      -1.625667    2.510957
     k16 |  -.3214635   1.119111     -0.287   0.774      -2.514881    1.871954
     k17 |  -1.687559   1.415058     -1.193   0.233      -4.461021    1.085903
     k18 |   .2845241   1.070143      0.266   0.790      -1.812917    2.381966
     k19 |   -.053055   1.096491     -0.048   0.961      -2.202138    2.096028
     k20 |  -.9010006   1.225654     -0.735   0.462      -3.303238    1.501236
     k21 |  -.4177007   1.155624     -0.361   0.718      -2.682683    1.847281
     k22 |  -.2427361   1.155516     -0.210   0.834      -2.507506    2.022034
     k23 |  -.1092136   1.155386     -0.095   0.925      -2.373728    2.155301
     k24 |  -25.79166     138172     -0.000   1.000      -270837.9    270786.4
     k25 |   .8937482   1.080688      0.827   0.408      -1.224361    3.011857
     k26 |  -25.23005   122119.6     -0.000   1.000      -239375.3    239324.8
     k27 |  -25.28551   127073.9     -0.000   1.000      -249085.6      249035
     k28 |  -.0509309   1.225173     -0.042   0.967      -2.452226    2.350364
     k29 |   .4427855   1.155113      0.383   0.701      -1.821194    2.706765
     k30 |  -.5492474   1.414489     -0.388   0.698      -3.321594    2.223099
     k31 |   .2870089   1.224949      0.234   0.815      -2.113846    2.687864
     k32 |  -.2172635   1.414306     -0.154   0.878      -2.989252    2.554725
     k33 |   .5398632   1.224806      0.441   0.659      -1.860712    2.940439
     k34 |  (dropped)
   _cons |  -4.765876   1.001189     -4.760   0.000      -6.728171   -2.803581
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. /* Table 2 p. 1281 Model 1 Ordinary Logit */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade if contdisp~=1

Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-1989.2726
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood =-1887.0326
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood =-1850.7636
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-1847.2481
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood =-1846.8849
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-1846.8783
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-1846.8783

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  20448
                                                        chi2(6)       = 284.79
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -1846.8783                             Pseudo R2     = 0.0716

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0401198   .0100634     -3.987   0.000      -.0598438   -.0203958
  growth |  -.0342753   .0125181     -2.738   0.006      -.0588104   -.0097402
  allies |  -.4796863   .1127463     -4.255   0.000      -.7006649   -.2587077
  contig |   1.353576   .1209052     11.195   0.000       1.116606    1.590546
capratio |   -.001962   .0005011     -3.916   0.000       -.002944   -.0009799
   trade |  -21.07611   11.30396     -1.864   0.062      -43.23146    1.079242
   _cons |  -4.326677   .1145089    -37.785   0.000       -4.55111   -4.102243
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 5 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. /* Table 2 p. 1281 Model 2 Group Duration */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade py* if contdisp~=1

Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-1989.2726
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood =-1897.1146
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood = -1764.673
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-1752.5402
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood =-1751.4516
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-1751.4058
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-1751.4057

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  20448
                                                        chi2(10)      = 475.73
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -1751.4057                             Pseudo R2     = 0.1196

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0388086    .010046     -3.863   0.000      -.0584985   -.0191188
  growth |  -.0401437    .012502     -3.211   0.001      -.0646472   -.0156402
  allies |  -.3659568   .1142725     -3.202   0.001      -.5899267   -.1419868
  contig |   .9932514   .1241333      8.001   0.000       .7499547    1.236548
capratio |  -.0022892   .0005228     -4.379   0.000      -.0033139   -.0012646
   trade |   -3.80922   9.679795     -0.394   0.694      -22.78127    15.16283
      py |   .3909645     .15792      2.476   0.013        .081447    .7004821
    pys1 |   .0897191   .0317871      2.823   0.005       .0274175    .1520207
    pys2 |  -.0288877    .012634     -2.287   0.022      -.0536499   -.0041255
    pys3 |   .0033141   .0029741      1.114   0.265       -.002515    .0091432
   _cons |   -3.56571   .1749895    -20.377   0.000      -3.908683   -3.222736
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 8 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. 
. /* Table 3 p. 1281 Model 1 First Disputes */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade py* if prefail<1

Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-1091.6704
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood =-994.94655
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood =-968.91014
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-964.80367
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood =-964.09913
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-964.05945
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-964.05931

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  16991
                                                        chi2(10)      = 255.22
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -964.05931                             Pseudo R2     = 0.1169

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |  -.0461426   .0133298     -3.462   0.000      -.0722685   -.0200167
  growth |  -.0229544   .0177538     -1.293   0.196      -.0577513    .0118424
  allies |  -.4231132   .1636909     -2.585   0.010      -.7439415   -.1022849
  contig |   1.105361   .1725376      6.406   0.000       .7671935    1.443528
capratio |  -.0019164   .0006007     -3.190   0.001      -.0030937    -.000739
   trade |  -3.553603   11.72642     -0.303   0.762      -26.53697    19.42976
      py |  -1.081689   .2356884     -4.589   0.000       -1.54363   -.6197485
    pys1 |  -.1837301   .0500956     -3.668   0.000      -.2819157   -.0855445
    pys2 |   .0692952   .0197877      3.502   0.000       .0305119    .1080784
    pys3 |  -.0139874   .0044842     -3.119   0.002      -.0227763   -.0051985
   _cons |   -3.21448    .206529    -15.564   0.000       -3.61927   -2.809691
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 5 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. /* Table 3 p. 1281 Model 2 Previous Disputes */
. logit dispute dem growth allies contig capratio trade prefail py*

Iteration 0:  Log Likelihood =-3859.5902
Iteration 1:  Log Likelihood =-2875.6199
Iteration 2:  Log Likelihood =-2474.6119
Iteration 3:  Log Likelihood =-2400.7061
Iteration 4:  Log Likelihood =-2393.7028
Iteration 5:  Log Likelihood =-2393.0121
Iteration 6:  Log Likelihood =-2392.9994
Iteration 7:  Log Likelihood =-2392.9994

Logit Estimates                                         Number of obs =  20990
                                                        chi2(11)      =2933.18
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log Likelihood = -2392.9994                             Pseudo R2     = 0.3800

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      Coef.   Std. Err.       z     P>|z|       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
     dem |   -.041507   .0083681     -4.960   0.000      -.0579081   -.0251059
  growth |  -.0208845   .0096841     -2.157   0.031       -.039865   -.0019039
  allies |  -.2497501   .0942294     -2.650   0.008      -.4344363   -.0650639
  contig |   .6864691   .0938281      7.316   0.000       .5025694    .8703689
capratio |  -.0019977   .0003729     -5.357   0.000      -.0027286   -.0012668
   trade |  -9.393837   10.19301     -0.922   0.357      -29.37176    10.58409
 prefail |   .1734043   .0090874     19.082   0.000       .1555933    .1912152
      py |  -1.677776   .1169411    -14.347   0.000      -1.906976   -1.448576
    pys1 |  -.2249821   .0272879     -8.245   0.000      -.2784653   -.1714989
    pys2 |   .0717562    .011403      6.293   0.000       .0494067    .0941057
    pys3 |  -.0093267   .0028559     -3.266   0.001      -.0149241   -.0037292
   _cons |  -1.599187    .103102    -15.511   0.000      -1.801263    -1.39711
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: 4 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. log close
